Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Polarisation of Indian Politics

The leftists were running the government by proxy.But it seems on the Indo-US nuclear deal,they have rubbed the congress on the wrong side. Even an accomodative PM like Manmohan Singh finally decided to take on the lefts opportunistic withdrawal of support and challenge them on the floor of the house. The left pushed the PM too far on the nuclear deal issue. PM has rightly said that it was a 'mis judgement' on the part of Prakash Karat. The government has got a lease of life .But the next general elections are not far off.

The rise of a third front has become real now and is almost inevitable. Parties like Ajit singh's Lok Dal and Deve Gowda's JD(s) have fallen a prey to the baits offered by another power monger Mayawati.With Mulayams SP aligning with the congress, naturally Mayawati's BSP got a hearty welcome in the UNPA. Regional parties like TDP, Biju's JD,Chautala's Lokdal and JD(u) have welcomed the leftists joining with them as it would strengthen the third front.
All the more the leftists also had no other go. Having come out of the UPA, they can not obviously join with the NDA .They need to support the formation of an alternate third front at least for their own survival in the ensuing polls.The only other regional party worth its salt that is out of all the three fronts is Jayalalitha's AIADMK.Since AIADMK has no MP's in the current LOk sabha, understandably she has been keeeping a low profile. Had AIADMK a couple of MPs's in the current Lok sabha,she would also have jumped in to the fray. She is playing a waiting game.She is currently undecided on her possible allies at the state level. That makes her keep her cards close to her chest. In all likelyhood the congress DMK alliance may continue.That means the PMK may have to find another alliance partner.There is the likelyhood of a third front in TN also. With Vijaykant's DMDK and Sarat Kumars SMMK trying to form a third front with them in the lead. The left may have two options in TN.They can either align with the proposed third front or with Jaya's AIADMK front. But joining the AIADMK would mean that she will not have any truck with BJP in the state and central elections. This remains to be seen. All this points to one thing that is certain. The coming state elections in TN and the next Lok sabha polls would be fought between three fronts.The congress led UPA, BJP led NDA and a third front including leftists and fringe parties. All said and done the leftists have committed an 'historical blunder' by withdrawing support to the UPA. Mr. Jyoti Basu of CPM said some time back, by refusing to allow him become the PM long time back, the CPM commited an 'historical blunder'.This time the CPM has committed the same 'historical blunder' courtesy Prakash Karat.

If the leftists get a major chunk of the seats in WB,Kerala and Tripura,with a sizeable win for BSP in UP,TDP in AP along with few fringe parties support the third front will be a major force to reckon with and the leftists will again call the shots .They will not obvioulsy join the government,but would enjoy power by proxy.The coalition politics is here to stay.Hence with the national interest in mind the indian electorates would do well to give a decsive mandate in future polls so that we may not have to witness the ugly horse trading once again and bring the nation to shame in the eyes of the international community.

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