Election 2014- India votes for a change

Indian voters have emphatically voted for a change . The corrupt and the inefficient have been voted out . The congress has been decimated . It is an unprecedented rout for the congress .Congress has drawn a blank in Delhi and Tamil Nadu . As expected in the combined AP (Seemandra and Telengana)it is almost a rout for the congress,securing just one seat. As expected states like TN,WB and Odisha were not much affected by the Modi wave . Regional leaders in these states were effective foils to BJP and Modi. These three local stalwarts winning 89 (37,34,18)seats between them is an impressive tally by any standards .Congress may not even get the opposition party status ,since its tally falls below the mandatory 10 % of the total seats to claim the opposition party status . It is good to see Rahul and Sonia owning up responsibility for the massive defeat of congress .This should pave way for examining their conduct in the last 10 years and take restorative measures to bring the party back to limelight .India badly needs congress as a strong and viable alternative in future elections.It is up to Congress to enumerate its deficiencies and overcome them .

For a party that ruled the nation for the last 10 years it is surely a dismal performance . Out of the 48 seats congress has managed to win, 21 seats (12 & 9) have come for 2 southern states of Kerala and Karnataka ,where congress is the ruling party. This means from the rest of the country,congress could get a meagre 27 seats . In another congress ruled state Maharashtra the BJP has almost trounced  the congress.In Maharashtra congress has managed to get just 1 seat ,a drab performance . In  J&K also Congress and Farooq Abdulla's NC have drawn a blank .It is no surprise that the DMK had to face the 'Modi and Lady' brunt .The AAP making a foray  in to the national scene too early, has also learnt the political turf at the national level is very different . In fact in one of my earlier posts when AAP made a dramatic debut in Delhi assembly elections ,I had stated this could happen if AAP enters the national scene too ealry.

Most importantlyBJP winning 73 out of the 80  seats in UP , 31 out of 40 in Bihar and 42 out of 48 in Maharashtra is impressive . In Chattisgarh, Goa, Rajasthan and Gujarat it was a clean sweep by BJP. BJP front has opened account in TN and WB securing 2 each in these states,two states mostly unaffected by the Modi wave . The only aberration for BJP could be the defeat of Arun Jaitely in Punjab . However Jaitely is a Rajya Sabha member and could be inducted in to the cabinet .

The most important fall out of this election is, after 1984 elections a national party has secured a clear majority to form the government . This is good for the nation .The clear majority will ensure there is no 'governance paralysis' .But regional parties like AIADMK,TMC,BJD,TDP and TRS have emerged stronger and can not be written off .The communists continued their downward slide .

Congress has to do lots of introspection . Turning a blind eye to all round corruption,Administrative inefficiency,not lending ear to regional leaders ,snubbing regional leaders of their own party and that of allies, disregarding regional sentiments with contempt and dynastic politics have derailed the congress government.Will congress learn a lesson ?.Every state wants their regional leader to be all powerful . It is a regional pride. whether it is a national party or a regional party,the local leader should have a say in national politics .A local leader of a regional party becomes popular when his clout becomes indispensable at national level . Similarly in the case of a national party ,there should be a strong and charismatic regional leader to combat the regional parties . Jayalalitha ,Mamta and Navin Patnaik have proved they are strong regional leaders .In the absence of such charismatic leaders in national parties in each state ,it would be difficult to sustain the party as a force to reckon with at the regional level. Congress has time and again failed to learn this lesson despite severe drubbing at the hands of strong regional parties . Even during the Nehru era ,perhaps the only period during which congress had a truly national presence ,there were strong charismatic leaders at state levels . The present day congress leadership is wary of strong state leaders and systemically stymies state leaders .This could be a fall out of the dynastic politics . In fact it should be the other way .Congress should promote strong regional leaders .At this juncture Congress needs articulate leaders at all levels through out the nation to build the party again at grass root levels . Perhaps they may have to reinvent the wheel . The classic example of a strong regional leader upstaging at the national level could be none other than Modi .

BJP should live up to the expectations of the people of India . They should ensure a corruption free ,transparent ,efficient ,matter of fact government that is development oriented fair and equitable to all sections of the people . The general public also expects the elected representatives to be humility personified and shun arrogant superiority to disdain the views of others as unworthy. I hope on 24 th May when the baton change hands, the new set of sprinters would take the nation forward .Congress along with other parties should play the role of a constructive opposition and try to rebuild its lost glory.

Will national parties learn the lesson ?

Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party won 224 Assembly seats in the just concluded polls to UP assembly and in the process shattered both the so called national parties, the Congress and the BJP to obscurity.There is a lesson to be learnt for these parties.Unless there is a strong regional leader with grass root support,it is difficult to  guide these parties to electoral wins,in states.Regional aspirations have to be appreciated by these parties .There is no way a party can be run by bosses sitting at the party high command. Ignoring local sentiments,pride and aspirations have cost these parties irreparable losses at the polls.Imposing leaders from the top and ignoring regional sentiments have resulted in congress losing many states,over the years. In fact the growth and success of regional parties lies in the fact that people want their regional leaders to grow in stature.It appears in UP,like TamilNadu ,it is going to be either BSP or SP and never Congress or BJP .It must be remembered both Mulyam and Mayawati are local heavy weights and there are no one in Congress or BJP to match them. In national parties like Congress and BJP due to manifold dissident groups, each group tries to push down leaders who grow in stature by pulling strings at the party high command.

Wherever there was a strong leader at the regional level,national parties have fared better .Narendra Modi is a strong man par excellence for the BJP and that gave him the strength to deliver and he had won consecutive elections in Gujarat for the BJP.Late YSR was a popular congress leader of AP.On his strengths the party romped to power in AP.It remains to be seen the fate of AP congress  in future elections sans YSR . TDP & TRP are going to give a tough fight to congress in AP and it won't be a surprise if congress losses its stronghold in this southern state also . It must be borne in mind TDP & TRP are parties born out of regional aspirations and regional pride.Their leaders are still popular among the public in AP.After the demise of Kamaraj,Congress is yet to see a towering leader from Tamilnadu.The void is not filled up because the state unit is dictated by  congress's high command .It is no surprise congress could not unseat the Dravidian parties from power since 1967.Congress may fail again if it pursues the same policy of ignoring local sentiments and pride. The Punjab victory for BJP is because of its strong local ally Shiromani Akali Dal .Congress retaining Manipur or BJP wresting Goa from Congress is insignificant as long as the national parties did not make any headway in important states like UP and Punjab .

The only good fall out of regional parties becoming stronger is that the union government has become truly federal,since neither of the two so called national parties can get absolute majority of its own in any of the future elections to the parliament. Already the leftists have strong bastions in Kerala,West Bengal and Tripura.Congress making big inroads in these states would be a wishful thinking.Even if leftists fail in West Bengal,it would only be advantage Mamta,another firebrand regional leader,whom congress finds it difficult to contain.Down South Jayalalitha would be another strong leader eroding Congress chances in next parliamentary elections .At this rate,if these two parties don't mend their ways they would soon lose their national party status and become a party with stronghold in few regional pockets,which is also diminishing at a faster pace.

An appeal to politicians - please introspect

I read a news item that the Jaya government in TN is contemplating to convert the Anna Centenary Library in Chennai inagurated by the DMK government towards the fag end of their regime in to a super speciality paediatric hospital and shift the library to the proposed knowledge park in the DPI complex.Any dispassionate person, would disapprove it.I also felt that way . I wondered if the Jaya government is yet again taking a wrong move out of political vengeance,because it was a dream project of former CM Karunanidhi.It is true Karunanidhi has a penchant for creating monumental buildings like this in his regime.It has to be admitted that the library was planned meticulously to be a world class one ,and is the biggest library in  Asia.The library was constructed at a cost of 172 crores.Now to convert the library to an hospital and to build another library of this nature ,with all the facilities available at ACL would cost the state  exchequer almost double the amount .Is it being done to please some one's whims ? Should Jaya ,supposedly a good administrator, behave the Mayawati way and squander government funds?.If she persists with the move ,I fear she would earn the displeasure of the apolitical common man.More over on the face of it, it appears as an unwarranted and politically motivated move,because it has already become a landmark building in the city.Above all the library is fully functional and is used by a host of people belonging to the cross section of the society like,scholars,students,writers and researchers.This move of the government would surely make it unpopular among the public.Already many sections including students and eminent writers have come out in the open against this decision of the government.A super specialty hospital for children is welcomed by all.But why should it be housed in a functional library with world class infrastructure facilities ? I am at a loss to understand why is the government so partiular to  house the proposed hospital in the ACL library building ? Does it not smack political vendetta ?Karunanidhi stoically said that 'I would leave it to the wise Tamil people to react '.

It is nothing but one-upmanship by politicians over their rivals whenever they come to power.Unfortunately this is done at the expense of public money to satisfy their whims and to settle scores .During her previous regime Jaya wanted to build a new Assembly complex in the beach road ,where the Queen Mary's college is functioning.Then DMK was in the central ministry,the environmental clearance was not given by T.R.Balu ,who was a central minister then .When the DMK government constructed the new Assembly building, Jaya opposed it and in one of her election speeches said if she is returned to power she would shift assembly back to the 17th century St.George fort .Karunanidhi then made the heritage Assembly chamber, a reference library for Central Institute of Classical Tamil.The moment Jaya came to power  the library with collection of 37,000 titles and 3,000 compact discs containing 41 classical works was shunted out and the Assembly was reverted back to its old place.She  also said the new Assembly complex would be converted in to a Multi speciality hospital in the lines of Delhi's  AIIMS.

It is high time our politicians mull over their politics of vendetta and realise that one can never get ahead of a person by trying to get even with him. When in opposition they are evaluators ,but when they sit in judgement they fail to distinguish the thin line between justice and vengeance.when justice leaves ,vengeance begins.Mulayam singh says when he returns to power he would raze down with bulldozers all monuments built by Mayawathi. What else is this other than vengeance ?They forget what Gandhiji said "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind ".They should realize revenge is a sword that wounds the one who wields it.Team Anna members are being subjected to vindictive politics and each member of the team is targetted.The Bhushans,Kiran Bedi and Kejriwal are not spared. Ramdev is accused of FEMA Violations . My surmise is why all this is being done after they voiced against the government ?Does it not smack vindictive politics ?I would like to remind them about what Churchill said about vengeance "Nothing is more costly, nothing is more sterile, than vengeance”.This is an appeal to our politicians , please introspect before you indulge in political vendetta. If you are still  not convinced ,before you set out for revenge, be sure to dig two graves.

Tamilnadu-Ahead of polls

The political scenario in Tamilnadu is still fluid and uncertain. Political realignments are still a possibility .This could become clear in a couple of days time. It all depends on how the left parties and DMDK react to the unilateral announcement of candidates list by the AIADMK, despite entering in to electoral pacts with DMDK and the left parties. In a glaring omission AIADMK has left out MDMK from its grand alliance. Vaiko was a steadfast ally of Jeyalalitha in the last 5 years .Ditching Vaiko and his party from the AIADMK alliance in favour of new found allies does not speak high of the AIADMK supremo. She has a dubious reputatuion of an unrelaibale alliance partner .With barely a month left for the elections to Tamilnadu ,the polarisation between two major Dravidian parties could witness some more unavoidable changes at the last minute,going by the current situation. The big brother attitude by AIADMK will surely be resented by the leftists,DMDK and other smaller parties.The disgruntled elements from this front like the LEFT parties along with MDMK , BJP ,some Pro_Elam outfits could still form a third front. The third front may not be formidable ,but will surely be capable of upsetting many results .It is surprising that other parties in the AIADMK front did not plead for the case of MDMK.Jayalalitha has conscioulsy chucked out MDMK with some sinister designs .This is very evident from the way MDMK was treated by the AIADMK front..All these 5 years Jeyalalitha has continously taunted the DMK government as a 'minority government'. Perhapas Jayalalitha does not want that phrase to boomerang on her government ,in case she returns to power .That may be one of the reasons for her to keep out MDMK and contest maximum number of seats in their front..By contesting more number of seats she believes her party will have a chance to become the single largest party to be called by the constitutional head to from the government,after the elections.

Whatever be the last minute political realignments in TN just before the polls, my surmise is there could be two possible outcomes to this poll in TN.In all likelihood it could be a fractured mandate. In case one of the front manages to get a simple majority to form the government, the margin of victory and the lead could be very slender. The most important factor of this poll is that TN would see for the first time POST POLL REALIGNMENT OF PARTIES to enable the largest single party to form the government.A coalition government is on the cards for the first time in Tamilnadu. Politics in Tamilnadu would touch new low after the elections and horse trading not herad of or seen ever before would happen .The DMK and congress front would also face stiff opposition this time and would find the going tough in many constituecncies. The Sri Lankan issue and Fisher men issue are likely to go against Congress and DMK in many constituencies. In urban constituencies 2 G scam will create ripples.In case the AIADMK front manages to surge ahead Jayalalitha could behave haughtily to her front constituents .Jayalalitha's imperious ways could distance her from her front parties even before the elections start and a realignment is on the cards. Jayalalitha should see reason and be accomodative to all partners including MDMK ,if she wants to taste victory.Else it would not be a surprise if her front partners walk out and start a third front.

Race for the saddle

On June 2nd the world will know about the next Indian Prime minister.Though it is too early to predict the outcome,there are too many aspiring Prime ministerial candidates form a host of parties.This includes some regional parties also.Who will don the PM's mantle is a million dollar question.Notwithstanding the uncertainites of the poll outcome,given below is a list of possible PM aspirants .

BJP is projecting L.K.Advani as its PM candidate.As of now Advani is the only potential PM candidate from BJP.In fact BJP's entire campaign is pivoted around the theme 'For a strong PM,vote for BJP'.

Like Last elections, Congress is not projecting any one,as its prospective PM candidate.This has nothing to do with the fact that the PM is recuperating after a surgery.PM being a Rajya Sabha member will continue to be a sitting member of the Rajya Sabha until 2010.In case, the UPA manages to secure a majority to form the government,Congress could decide one way or the other.(choose a potenetial candidate from its Lok sabha members or continue with Manmohan singh).However there could be hardcore sycophants in Congress, who would want Sonia Gandhi to assume the PM's mantle.An equal number of youth congress men could vie with fellow congresmen in favour of Rahul Gandhi also.The unfortunate guy in the Congress would be its 'All Purpose Man' Pranab Mukherji.But if Pranab becomes a surprise candidate, it could be a marvel.No doubt Pranab is a competent candidate to be the Prime Minister.

The alternate front(third front) comprising Leftists,TDP,JD(s),AIADMK,BSP,TRS etc also have Prime Ministerail aspirants.The foremost among them is BSP's Mayawati.She does not in any way hold back her aspirations.She has vociferously voiced her thoughts on this.But the constituents of the third fornt have decided not to name any potential PM candidate until the elections are over.This decision is only to appease others in the front, who have similar aspirations.Obviously they don't want the front to break before the elections on the question of declaring the prospective PM.The implied threat is from the AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha.She is also nursing Prime ministerial ambitions.In the event of a fractured mandate, she is capable of doing a hard bargain and achieve her goals.Leftists apparently want a say in deciding the Potential PM from third fornt,should things move to such a situation.CPM committed a blunder years ago forefeiting a PM's chance to Jyoti Basu.Prakash Karat has gone on record this time,in case third front assumes power,CPM might join the government.Does it mean he has some trumpcards up his sleeve?Does the PB of the communist party want to do some amends to its earlier folly?Though Chandrababu Naidu and Devagowda have said they are not in the race,one gets the feeling that the wily Gowda would be hoping, that in case of difference of opinions among third front parties over agreeing to a common candidate,history could repeat itself and he could becme a compromise candidate once again.

Apart from the three major political fronts there are a host of other PM aspirants from other parties also.Some people have expressed it overtly also.People like Sharad Pawar,Mulyam Singh Yadav,Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu Yadav have also expressed their desire to be the PM at one time or the other in their political career.Anything can happen in politics.There could be dark horses emerging form nowhere.Whatever it is,the stewardship of the nation should rest in the hands of a safe,able,competent,efficient and qualified Prime Minister.

Polarisation of Indian Politics

The leftists were running the government by proxy.But it seems on the Indo-US nuclear deal,they have rubbed the congress on the wrong side. Even an accomodative PM like Manmohan Singh finally decided to take on the lefts opportunistic withdrawal of support and challenge them on the floor of the house. The left pushed the PM too far on the nuclear deal issue. PM has rightly said that it was a 'mis judgement' on the part of Prakash Karat. The government has got a lease of life .But the next general elections are not far off.

The rise of a third front has become real now and is almost inevitable. Parties like Ajit singh's Lok Dal and Deve Gowda's JD(s) have fallen a prey to the baits offered by another power monger Mayawati.With Mulayams SP aligning with the congress, naturally Mayawati's BSP got a hearty welcome in the UNPA. Regional parties like TDP, Biju's JD,Chautala's Lokdal and JD(u) have welcomed the leftists joining with them as it would strengthen the third front.
All the more the leftists also had no other go. Having come out of the UPA, they can not obviously join with the NDA .They need to support the formation of an alternate third front at least for their own survival in the ensuing polls.The only other regional party worth its salt that is out of all the three fronts is Jayalalitha's AIADMK.Since AIADMK has no MP's in the current LOk sabha, understandably she has been keeeping a low profile. Had AIADMK a couple of MPs's in the current Lok sabha,she would also have jumped in to the fray. She is playing a waiting game.She is currently undecided on her possible allies at the state level. That makes her keep her cards close to her chest. In all likelyhood the congress DMK alliance may continue.That means the PMK may have to find another alliance partner.There is the likelyhood of a third front in TN also. With Vijaykant's DMDK and Sarat Kumars SMMK trying to form a third front with them in the lead. The left may have two options in TN.They can either align with the proposed third front or with Jaya's AIADMK front. But joining the AIADMK would mean that she will not have any truck with BJP in the state and central elections. This remains to be seen. All this points to one thing that is certain. The coming state elections in TN and the next Lok sabha polls would be fought between three fronts.The congress led UPA, BJP led NDA and a third front including leftists and fringe parties. All said and done the leftists have committed an 'historical blunder' by withdrawing support to the UPA. Mr. Jyoti Basu of CPM said some time back, by refusing to allow him become the PM long time back, the CPM commited an 'historical blunder'.This time the CPM has committed the same 'historical blunder' courtesy Prakash Karat.

If the leftists get a major chunk of the seats in WB,Kerala and Tripura,with a sizeable win for BSP in UP,TDP in AP along with few fringe parties support the third front will be a major force to reckon with and the leftists will again call the shots .They will not obvioulsy join the government,but would enjoy power by proxy.The coalition politics is here to stay.Hence with the national interest in mind the indian electorates would do well to give a decsive mandate in future polls so that we may not have to witness the ugly horse trading once again and bring the nation to shame in the eyes of the international community.