Election 2014- India votes for a change

Indian voters have emphatically voted for a change . The corrupt and the inefficient have been voted out . The congress has been decimated . It is an unprecedented rout for the congress .Congress has drawn a blank in Delhi and Tamil Nadu . As expected in the combined AP (Seemandra and Telengana)it is almost a rout for the congress,securing just one seat. As expected states like TN,WB and Odisha were not much affected by the Modi wave . Regional leaders in these states were effective foils to BJP and Modi. These three local stalwarts winning 89 (37,34,18)seats between them is an impressive tally by any standards .Congress may not even get the opposition party status ,since its tally falls below the mandatory 10 % of the total seats to claim the opposition party status . It is good to see Rahul and Sonia owning up responsibility for the massive defeat of congress .This should pave way for examining their conduct in the last 10 years and take restorative measures to bring the party back to limelight .India badly needs congress as a strong and viable alternative in future elections.It is up to Congress to enumerate its deficiencies and overcome them .

For a party that ruled the nation for the last 10 years it is surely a dismal performance . Out of the 48 seats congress has managed to win, 21 seats (12 & 9) have come for 2 southern states of Kerala and Karnataka ,where congress is the ruling party. This means from the rest of the country,congress could get a meagre 27 seats . In another congress ruled state Maharashtra the BJP has almost trounced  the congress.In Maharashtra congress has managed to get just 1 seat ,a drab performance . In  J&K also Congress and Farooq Abdulla's NC have drawn a blank .It is no surprise that the DMK had to face the 'Modi and Lady' brunt .The AAP making a foray  in to the national scene too early, has also learnt the political turf at the national level is very different . In fact in one of my earlier posts when AAP made a dramatic debut in Delhi assembly elections ,I had stated this could happen if AAP enters the national scene too ealry.

Most importantlyBJP winning 73 out of the 80  seats in UP , 31 out of 40 in Bihar and 42 out of 48 in Maharashtra is impressive . In Chattisgarh, Goa, Rajasthan and Gujarat it was a clean sweep by BJP. BJP front has opened account in TN and WB securing 2 each in these states,two states mostly unaffected by the Modi wave . The only aberration for BJP could be the defeat of Arun Jaitely in Punjab . However Jaitely is a Rajya Sabha member and could be inducted in to the cabinet .

The most important fall out of this election is, after 1984 elections a national party has secured a clear majority to form the government . This is good for the nation .The clear majority will ensure there is no 'governance paralysis' .But regional parties like AIADMK,TMC,BJD,TDP and TRS have emerged stronger and can not be written off .The communists continued their downward slide .

Congress has to do lots of introspection . Turning a blind eye to all round corruption,Administrative inefficiency,not lending ear to regional leaders ,snubbing regional leaders of their own party and that of allies, disregarding regional sentiments with contempt and dynastic politics have derailed the congress government.Will congress learn a lesson ?.Every state wants their regional leader to be all powerful . It is a regional pride. whether it is a national party or a regional party,the local leader should have a say in national politics .A local leader of a regional party becomes popular when his clout becomes indispensable at national level . Similarly in the case of a national party ,there should be a strong and charismatic regional leader to combat the regional parties . Jayalalitha ,Mamta and Navin Patnaik have proved they are strong regional leaders .In the absence of such charismatic leaders in national parties in each state ,it would be difficult to sustain the party as a force to reckon with at the regional level. Congress has time and again failed to learn this lesson despite severe drubbing at the hands of strong regional parties . Even during the Nehru era ,perhaps the only period during which congress had a truly national presence ,there were strong charismatic leaders at state levels . The present day congress leadership is wary of strong state leaders and systemically stymies state leaders .This could be a fall out of the dynastic politics . In fact it should be the other way .Congress should promote strong regional leaders .At this juncture Congress needs articulate leaders at all levels through out the nation to build the party again at grass root levels . Perhaps they may have to reinvent the wheel . The classic example of a strong regional leader upstaging at the national level could be none other than Modi .

BJP should live up to the expectations of the people of India . They should ensure a corruption free ,transparent ,efficient ,matter of fact government that is development oriented fair and equitable to all sections of the people . The general public also expects the elected representatives to be humility personified and shun arrogant superiority to disdain the views of others as unworthy. I hope on 24 th May when the baton change hands, the new set of sprinters would take the nation forward .Congress along with other parties should play the role of a constructive opposition and try to rebuild its lost glory.

Mulayam-Mamta combine puts congress in a fix

The presidential race is becoming more intense with Mamta and Mulayam rejecting both the names suggested by Congress for the presidential race.Congress suggested the names of FM Pranab Mukherji as the first choice and that of Ansari the current Vice epresident as their second choice.Mulayam -Mamta combine not only rejected the names suggested by Congress ,but also suggested 3 alternative names which has embarrassed the congress . The names suggested by  Mulayam and Mamta are  former President Kalam as first choice , PM Manmohan singh as second choice and former speaker Somnath Chatterji as their third choice.

The move by  SP and TMC is surely a master stroke with a wide range of  ramifications.The first shock for congress could be the teaming up of Mamta and Mulayam.The congress does not have the required numbers to make their presidential nominee get through. They have to necessarily get the support of all the key allies.They were hoping to bank on Mulayam ,since Mamta could be unpredictable.So they were using the Mulayam card to tame Mamta in the past. But Mulayam and Mamta  teaming up is a shocker to the congress.This is surely a political oneupmanship by Mamta and Mulayam .

Mamta rejecting Pranab Mukherji's name is no secret and is on expected lines.They were not in their best terms even during Mamta's congress days.But to appease the local sentiment of helping a Bengali rise to the highest office of the nation ,she has suggested the name of the former speaker Somanth Chatterji,a former comrade of the CPM,as her third choice.But Somnath chatterji is surely a competent candidate .The second shocker to congress could be naming PM as their second choice.Was it a hint to the congress that it is time for a change of guard ? Close on the heels of S&P report blaming PM as ineffective in bringing in economic reforms Mamta has suggested Manmohan's name as their second choice for Presidential race.But congress will not be prepared to  crown the prince in waiting at this critical time when country's economy is in bad shape. Alternatively they have to hand over the reins to the most experienced and suave FM Pranab as PM. Congress would hesitate to hand over the reins to Pranab .They have done it in the past also before Rajiv Gandhi was sworn in as PM.The  first choice of Mamta Mulayam combine is former President Kalam,a non controversial neutral person.But Congress would not support his candidature because BJP has already given a hint that it would favour Kalam as its candidate. Moreover last time Kalam became president as an NDA candidate .Backing an NDA candidate may not be in the interest of congress.These sudden twists has made BJP play a waiting game. If BJP sticks to their decision of supporting kalam as their candidate,there is the risk of congress losing the support of Mamta and Mulayam.They might go with NDA since it is their first choice. At this stage congress can ill afford to lose the support of Mamta and Mulayam.Agreeing to Manmohan as a candidate would mean a major shake up in the government.So Congress should take this opportunity to return the compliments to the Mamta Mulyam combine by springing a surprise by agreeing to Somnath Chatterji as the consensus candidate. such a move by congress would force Mamta and Mulyam  to agree to Somnath Chatterji as their candidate,because he is one among their choices. Mamta will also have the satisfaction of supporting a fellow Bengali to the  highest position in the nation.This will also preempt BJP naming Kalam as their candidate.Because  Kalam has already gone on record that he would not contest if  there is no consensus between major parties on his candidature.

Finally Somnath chatterji could become the consensus candidate of both UPA and NDA .This would be in the interests of the nation too.Somnath is no longer a CPM member.As a former comrade the left wing parties may also support his candidature. The role of president would assume significant  importance in view of the impending general elections to the parliament in 2014.In all possibilities there could be a fractured mandate and the president may have to exercise his constitutional powers in the best interest of the nation . A former Lok sabha speaker,an eminent parliamentarian and a lawyer himself,Somnath chatterji would be the ideal candidate. BJP and its NDA allies also might veer around to support Somnath chatterji .

One has to feel sorry for Pranab Mukherji .He narrowly missed the opportunity of becoming India's PM twice . But he continued to be the 'all weather man' of Congress warding off all storms and heat faced by the party at crucial times. The writing on the wall became very clear to Pranab ,that he could never aspire to become PM as long as the young prince in waiting Rahul Gandhi is cooling his heels .So he decided to nurture a desire to enter the Mughal gardens as India's  President.Unfortunately he had to contend with an adversary from his own state, Mamata an uncomfortable ally of the UPA.Congress would have liked to name Pranab for  the highest office to clear way for Rahul Gandhi to assume the PM's chair at a future date.Another unfortunate candidate to be dumped would be P.A.Sangma . It woul be  better for P.A.Sangma to withdraw from the contest,as his own party NCP may not support his candidature, since NCP is an ally of UPA .

Mamta's dislike for Pranab brought in Somnath Chatterji in to the race.His Bengali roots also helped him to get Mamta's favour to scuttle Pranab's chances.But it must  be admitted he is a worthy candidate . I wish all parties in NDA and UPA agree to Somnath's candidature and end this game of oneupmanship in the interest of the nation.In a decision arrived at consensus,the final decision is often not the first preference of the group and they may not even like the final result. But it is a decision to which they all consent because it is best for the group. So let there be a consensus in the interest of the nation.

A level headed Railway minister gets the sack

Dinesh Trivedi presented his frist ever Railway budget on March 14 th and had to resign on the same day because his party TMC did not approve the passenger fare hikes proposed by Trivedi in his Railway budget.It must be born in mind the passenger fares were not hiked by railways for the last 10 years,and the finances of railways are not rosy .Indian railways is the largest employer in the world.Trivedi said if the passenger fares are not raised the railways would come to a grinding halt. That would be the most disastorous thing to happen to this nation.The fuel prices have been increased umpteen times in the last 10 years.But the railways never increased the passenger fares for the last 10 years.Politicians want their populist schemes to be carried out ,but never cared about sound administrative or fiscal  mangement.Knowing pretty well, the financial postion of railways is not all that good,TMC wants fare hike to be rolled back,for the sake of common man .The reaction of the common man is not that harsh over the fare hike .Because Trivedi's predecessors did not raise the fare for a decade, Trivedi had to raise it by 2 to 3 pasie per km ,for second class,suburban trains and 5 pasie per km for sleeper class ,which is just and reasonable.If Trivedi's predecessors had increased the fares by at least 1 paise per km every year this situation would not have arised. I am once again reminded about what Nani Palkiwala once said about budgets.He said budgets are exercises where economics is defeated by politics.Mamta asking Trivedi to rollback fare hike or resign is ridiculous.As Railway minister,Trivedi has done justice to his role .

For the first time  a level headed Railway minister Trivedi has suggested a Railway Tariff regulatory Authority that would recommend freight and passenger fares.This would prevent future Railway ministers from implementing their politically expedient schemes.The populist moves by politicians in not increasing the fares ,where required is widely practiced by  politicians of all hues across the nation.The result is, most public sector undertakings by the government ,no matter whether it is state government or central government are running on losses.In Tamilnadu the passenger fares of government run transport buses were not increased for many years, despite frequent fuel price hikes and finally the present incumbent government had to go in for a steep hike,yet not commensurate with expenditure.To please the electorate the politicians defer fare hikes and finally a steep raise has to be made to make the organisation viable.In the mean time , due to financial crunch the concerned department initiates austerity measures and the casualty is the quality of service by these departments.This is also applicable to many of the electricity boards of the country.The Electricity tariffs are not raised for years together and now most EB's are in red and have a power crisis across the nation.Mismanagement and continuous emphasis on subsidy,despite the organisation making losses are the sole reason for failure of public sector undertakings in our country. Added to this,our politicians are promising a freebie galore to the electorates at the time of polls .Where do we have funds to finance all these schemes?.If we continue to run our public sector undertakings this way,all of them would end up bankrupt and that would not be a good news for the projected growth.Hope our politicians become little more prudent and not impulsive in their knee jerk reactions.If the passenger fare hikes are rolled back,it would be the saddest day for Indian Railways.

Will national parties learn the lesson ?

Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party won 224 Assembly seats in the just concluded polls to UP assembly and in the process shattered both the so called national parties, the Congress and the BJP to obscurity.There is a lesson to be learnt for these parties.Unless there is a strong regional leader with grass root support,it is difficult to  guide these parties to electoral wins,in states.Regional aspirations have to be appreciated by these parties .There is no way a party can be run by bosses sitting at the party high command. Ignoring local sentiments,pride and aspirations have cost these parties irreparable losses at the polls.Imposing leaders from the top and ignoring regional sentiments have resulted in congress losing many states,over the years. In fact the growth and success of regional parties lies in the fact that people want their regional leaders to grow in stature.It appears in UP,like TamilNadu ,it is going to be either BSP or SP and never Congress or BJP .It must be remembered both Mulyam and Mayawati are local heavy weights and there are no one in Congress or BJP to match them. In national parties like Congress and BJP due to manifold dissident groups, each group tries to push down leaders who grow in stature by pulling strings at the party high command.

Wherever there was a strong leader at the regional level,national parties have fared better .Narendra Modi is a strong man par excellence for the BJP and that gave him the strength to deliver and he had won consecutive elections in Gujarat for the BJP.Late YSR was a popular congress leader of AP.On his strengths the party romped to power in AP.It remains to be seen the fate of AP congress  in future elections sans YSR . TDP & TRP are going to give a tough fight to congress in AP and it won't be a surprise if congress losses its stronghold in this southern state also . It must be borne in mind TDP & TRP are parties born out of regional aspirations and regional pride.Their leaders are still popular among the public in AP.After the demise of Kamaraj,Congress is yet to see a towering leader from Tamilnadu.The void is not filled up because the state unit is dictated by  congress's high command .It is no surprise congress could not unseat the Dravidian parties from power since 1967.Congress may fail again if it pursues the same policy of ignoring local sentiments and pride. The Punjab victory for BJP is because of its strong local ally Shiromani Akali Dal .Congress retaining Manipur or BJP wresting Goa from Congress is insignificant as long as the national parties did not make any headway in important states like UP and Punjab .

The only good fall out of regional parties becoming stronger is that the union government has become truly federal,since neither of the two so called national parties can get absolute majority of its own in any of the future elections to the parliament. Already the leftists have strong bastions in Kerala,West Bengal and Tripura.Congress making big inroads in these states would be a wishful thinking.Even if leftists fail in West Bengal,it would only be advantage Mamta,another firebrand regional leader,whom congress finds it difficult to contain.Down South Jayalalitha would be another strong leader eroding Congress chances in next parliamentary elections .At this rate,if these two parties don't mend their ways they would soon lose their national party status and become a party with stronghold in few regional pockets,which is also diminishing at a faster pace.

The sagacious Indian voter

Elections results of Tamilnadu,West Bengal,Kerala,Assam and Pondichery have manifold and diverse manifestations.Naturally when the mandates are diverse the ramifications of the results are likely to be diverse.The problems and issues were diverse among the states that went to polls.The election results have proved once again, the Indian voters are sagacious and no one should underestimate them.The elction results have thrown many upsets .The ramifications of these election results will have a Pan India cascading effect on national politics.

Except for a couple of forecasts,most of them predicted an hung assembly in Tamilnadu.But contrary to popular perceptions,it was a landslide victory for AIADMK front and an unprecdented rout for the DMK and the Congress.The Tamilnadu voters have given a decisive mandate and were acutley insightful and wise by giving an absolute majority to AIADMK. Despite all its neighbouring southern states have opted for coalition governments on one ocassion or the other,ever since the coalition and quid pro quid politics came to fore three decades ago, TN voters have always voted for a single party rule.The DMK congress combine did not find favour with the electorate on many issues.The freeby announcement by DMK front in its manifesto was neutralised by AIADMK matching them with an equally attractive freeby announcement.The worsening power supply situation in the state,especially during the summer had a telling effect on the voters. The massive 2 G scam had its share on the loss toll of the DMK front, albeit the DMK front tried to underplay its effect on the electorate.By and large the public believed the party top brass was involved in the scam.It was a huge setback to the DMK front.The Sri Lankan crisis and the fishermen issues are not issues of inconsequence as the Congress and DMK believed .There was rising resentment among younger generation about the way the DMK and the Congress handled these two issues. This was very evident in most of the social net working sites.

Now the AIADMK will take over the reigns from the DMK. The AIADMK should be wary of possible pitfalls in governance from the begining itself. One hopes Jayalalitha will ensure a corruption free government and zero interference by party functionaries or extra constitutional powers in administration. Jayalalitha should also control sycophants from repeating the nauseating flattery seen in the previous regime.Most importantly she should check fawners of her own party.The common public expects exemplary and impartial behaviour from the authorities who enforce law and order.Regarding the Sri Lankan crisis,though belated, the new incumbent government can, at least now, use its offices to influence the centre, to amend the wrongs done in the past.Similarly fishermen should not be subjected to continued harassment by our neighbouring country.These are two emotive issues that can not be ignored by any party ruling Tamilnadu.The new government should also work towards for a negotiated settlement of the riaprian rights of the state.Having made the freeby announcements now the Jayalalitha government has to deliver its promises,despite its assurances about a judicious and prudent fiscal management unlike its predecessor.When Lalu Yadav could turn Railways that was in red to a financially viable organisation,one hopes Jayalalitha will also be able to achieve this financial feat .

The left has lost its forts in Kerala and West Bengal. However in Kerala the defeat for the left was not as humiliating as in West Bengal.V.S has won in Kerala where as Budhadeb has lost in Bengal.The left front was ruling Bengal for close to 4 decades. But ever since veteran Jyoti Basu left the scene in Bengal,the slide for the Left front started in Bengal.Besides, when Praksh Karat took over from the veteran Harkishen Singh surjeet,as party chief , he appeared as an hardliner of party philosophies.But after he took charge, the party started loosing in elections and came under attack of his own party colleagues.He even went to the extent of calling Mamta a 'dumb doll'. But Nandigram and Singur provided the much needed spring board platform for the fiery Mamata to push the left front on to the backfoot. From then on she has only gone on strength and never looked back and has finally culminated in ahcieving her goal.The 'dumb doll' finally dumped the Marxists .But it remains to be seen how she fares.There could be trouble for Congress in store,as they have to now keep Mamta in good humour for their own survival at the centre.She is another moody and unpredictable politician, to be carefully handled by the managers of Congress.The downfall of the left front in Kerala could be attributed to themselves.The infight in CPM , the lack of support to its incumbent CM, from party high command and a possible error of judgement in excluding Muslim league from the LDF front have resulted in the defeat of the LDF in Kerala.Despite all this, many believed V.S would be a better CM than Ommen Chandy. The results also reveal the UDF has secured a very slender margin in Kerala.This was made possible simply because Congress forged a winning combine this time .The coalition arithmetics of UDF was right this time in Kerala.

A congres win in Assam was a foregone conclusion. The outgoing Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi performed well to get re elected.Also AGP is on decline for the last few years. There was literally no opposition worth its name to Gogoi.It is a personal victory to Mr.Gogoi ,and Congress can surely gloat over it .

The congress has lost Pondichery to NR congress and its allies. NR congress, is a party floated by former congress Chief minister of Pondichery, N.Rengaswamy.He forged an alliance with ADMK and have won 19 setas in the 30 member assembly. The loss is again congress's own making.NR was the most popular and unassuming Congress chief minister of Pondichery. Under his regime Pondichery was awarded the best state to live in India by the vice presodent of India. But the congress high command felt otherwise.Due to internal bickerings NR was aksed to resign and was replaced by Vaithilingam as CM.NR floated a party just few months before the elections, on popular demand from party cadres, and forged an alliance with AIADMK and their front has won the elections this time.It is high time for Congress to understand they should respect regional pride and sentiments.A party can not be a run successfully by a stooge of the high command. A tall regional leader should head the state unit of the national party and he should have greater voice in party affairs, for a national party to flourish in states.Whenever there were strong local leaders for national parties,the party has fared better in that state.

It has been proved again and again,that the Indian voter is sagacious.When Indira Gandhi said 'India Marches forward' in the post emergency elections,the Indian voter thought otherwise and voted her out. When BJP under Vajpayee said 'India is shining' during the elections,after a five year tenure ,the BJP government was voted out. The Indian voter is not a charlie to be duped by wily politicians.

Mamta,Lalu and Indian Railways

Lalu was hailed as India's best Railway Minister.His Desi wisdom earned him admirers all over the world.undoubtedly he was the most popular Railway Minister.Indian Railways is the world's largest employer.It employs 1.6 million heads.In 2004 when Lalu took over as Railway Minister ,Indian Railways was almost bankrupt.But in 5 years time Lalu with his ingenuity made it a cash surplus organisation.The turnaround made by Indian Ralways, under Lalu's stewardship was made a case study for its students by IIM,Ahmedabad.Lalu's rustic wisdom said " Milk the cow fully,lest it would fall sick". His out of the box ideas were carried out by competent officers.He increased the wagon loads from 80 Metric tons to 90 Metric tons.This generated additional revenue of over 7500 crores.Delgation of powers was at its best during Lalu's regime.He took calculated risks.He decided a passenger train would be inspected and examined only after 3500 KMs and a freight train after 4500 KMs against the earlier practice of inspection after every trip.This made trains available for longer duration,and generated extra trips and extra revenue.Earlier for every inspection Railways took 16 hours after each trip.Lalu handled the Tatkal scheme in a different perspective.It turned out to be a money spinner for Railways and earned over 1000 crores.When the Tatkal scheme was introduced for the first time , there would be a single separate Tatkal coach per train.In otherwords a small number of berths were earmarked for those who could not reserve in advance and want to travel urgently.But this facility was available at a slightly higher cost.But Lalu changed the Tatkal scheme also.He permitted Tatkal booking in regular coaches also.This means those who can afford to pay more could book on Tatkal quota in regular coaches.He also allowed Tatkal booking 5 days before travel date.Railways charged a premium of RS 150 to Rs 300 on every Tatkal ticket booked.But all this was done at the expense of general quota tickets.It surely was a great disadvantage to the common man.But for railways it was a money spinner.It earned greater revenues for Railways.It was essentially a business decision,but against the common man.Now it seems Mamta is all set to reverse this.She might revert back to the old Tatkal scheme.She might also reduce the number of days permitted for Tatkal booking.In principle,Mamta's perspective is correct and is in the interest of the common man.But Railways would lose a considerable chunk of their income generated from Tatkal.Mamta has already indicated her budget would be pro people.But if implemented Railways earnings would surely drop.It is already reported that there is a drop in the freight earnings of Railways.One fervently hopes the Railways does not become RED again.Those days when the federal budgets are presented Mr.Palkiwala used to give his budget analysis.These speeches were delviered only in big metros.Once he delivered his budget analysis lecture at Lakshmi Sundaram Hall in Madurai.I was fortunate to hear his speech then.I am now reminded of what he said about 'budgets' then.He said 'budget is an annual exercise where economics is defeated at the hands of politics.'