Tamilnadu-Ahead of polls

The political scenario in Tamilnadu is still fluid and uncertain. Political realignments are still a possibility .This could become clear in a couple of days time. It all depends on how the left parties and DMDK react to the unilateral announcement of candidates list by the AIADMK, despite entering in to electoral pacts with DMDK and the left parties. In a glaring omission AIADMK has left out MDMK from its grand alliance. Vaiko was a steadfast ally of Jeyalalitha in the last 5 years .Ditching Vaiko and his party from the AIADMK alliance in favour of new found allies does not speak high of the AIADMK supremo. She has a dubious reputatuion of an unrelaibale alliance partner .With barely a month left for the elections to Tamilnadu ,the polarisation between two major Dravidian parties could witness some more unavoidable changes at the last minute,going by the current situation. The big brother attitude by AIADMK will surely be resented by the leftists,DMDK and other smaller parties.The disgruntled elements from this front like the LEFT parties along with MDMK , BJP ,some Pro_Elam outfits could still form a third front. The third front may not be formidable ,but will surely be capable of upsetting many results .It is surprising that other parties in the AIADMK front did not plead for the case of MDMK.Jayalalitha has conscioulsy chucked out MDMK with some sinister designs .This is very evident from the way MDMK was treated by the AIADMK front..All these 5 years Jeyalalitha has continously taunted the DMK government as a 'minority government'. Perhapas Jayalalitha does not want that phrase to boomerang on her government ,in case she returns to power .That may be one of the reasons for her to keep out MDMK and contest maximum number of seats in their front..By contesting more number of seats she believes her party will have a chance to become the single largest party to be called by the constitutional head to from the government,after the elections.

Whatever be the last minute political realignments in TN just before the polls, my surmise is there could be two possible outcomes to this poll in TN.In all likelihood it could be a fractured mandate. In case one of the front manages to get a simple majority to form the government, the margin of victory and the lead could be very slender. The most important factor of this poll is that TN would see for the first time POST POLL REALIGNMENT OF PARTIES to enable the largest single party to form the government.A coalition government is on the cards for the first time in Tamilnadu. Politics in Tamilnadu would touch new low after the elections and horse trading not herad of or seen ever before would happen .The DMK and congress front would also face stiff opposition this time and would find the going tough in many constituecncies. The Sri Lankan issue and Fisher men issue are likely to go against Congress and DMK in many constituencies. In urban constituencies 2 G scam will create ripples.In case the AIADMK front manages to surge ahead Jayalalitha could behave haughtily to her front constituents .Jayalalitha's imperious ways could distance her from her front parties even before the elections start and a realignment is on the cards. Jayalalitha should see reason and be accomodative to all partners including MDMK ,if she wants to taste victory.Else it would not be a surprise if her front partners walk out and start a third front.