The resignation of Chief Minister
O.Pannerselvam has thrown TamilNadu in to disarray. Not long ago when the late
CM Jayalalitha was hospitalised the state administration was almost paralysed
for 75 days. People of the sate heaved a
sigh of relief when the party in power managed to remain in tact and managed to
tide over an anticipated leadership crisis and formed the government. But the
state had to face the fury of nature -the Varda storm .The administration
handled the situation in a praiseworthy manner. Monsoon failure and failure to
resolve the Cauvery issue satisfactorily has created a huge set back to the
farming community. At this juncture there was a huge public upsurge over the
Jallikattu issue. The OPS led government handled it with great prudence and won
the appreciation of every one. With in a short span OPS managed to create at
least the semblance that a responsible and functional government was in power.
It was at this time the foreboded
factionalism of the party came to fore with Sasikala staking claims to replace
OPS and become the CM with the unconditional support of all their legislative
assembly members. It was a paradox that OPS himself had to propose her name as
the Leader of the party in the legislature. He submitted his resignation and it
was promptly accepted by the governor. A
Damocles sword is hanging over the head of Sasikala. Sasikala's appeal in the
DA case is pending in the Supreme Court. To confound the confusion SC announced
that judgment will be delivered in the DA case during the course of this week.
Two days after the event OPS comes out with a statement, after doing a prayer
to late CM Jayalalitha's soul at her
memorial. He said he was coerced to submit his resignation and if required he
would withdraw his resignation and prove his majority in a floor test.
The governor Mr.Visyasagar Rao
was at Ooty in Tamilnadu at the time of the resignation of the CM. When a
constitutional crisis was brewing in the state the governor goes to Delhi then to Mumbai and returns to Chennai after 4
days. It is believed the governor did this to consult legal luminaries about
the extraordinary situation in TN and to attend a wedding at Mumbai. Whatever
may be the reason; this could be interpreted as a delaying tactis by the
governor.
In the meantime 6 MLA's and few
party functionaries extended support OPS. To stall further erosion in the
number of her supporters Sasikala takes her supporters to a resort and restricts their movements.
Now, my surmise on how this extraordinary situation could
unfold
1. OPS is pinning hope on the following.
1) At
the floor test few disgruntled MLA's, those who owe allegiance to him and fence
sitters could vote in his favour. He assumes he would get the support of at
least 15 MLA's .At the time of writing this 6 MLA's have shifted their loyalty
to the OPS camp. Including OPS ,now his camp has a numerical strength of 7
2) Hopes
that the DMK and congress combine would back and rescue him to dislodge
Sasikala in the event of a floor test
3) If
1 and 2 happens then he could successfully stall Sasikala from becoming the CM .That
is his immediate goal. He knows it would be a pretty uphill task for him to
form the government.
2. Sasikala's immediate goal is
to retain the support of MLA's held in captivity and capture power. She has her
own doubts as to how many of them would back her, if they are allowed to exercise
their free will.
Sasikala pins her
hope on the following
1) At
the present moment, her's is the single largest party. She is officially
elected as the Legislative party leader and the governor is duty bound to call
her to form the government as per the constitution.
2) This
government has another 4 and half years term. Most of her MLA's are fisrt time
MLA's and they would not want to face another election in 6 month's time and
risk their chances of getting elected next time
3) So
they would at any cost support her. Besides her strong coterie, strong in the
literal sense of the word, can retain her flock together .Who would like to
lose the privileges of being a minister or an MLA
4) OPS
can not muster enough MLA's to form and stake claim to form a government on his
own.
3. DMK's role
Obviously DMK is
trying to fish in the troubled waters.
1) DMK
does not want Sasikala to come to power .To achieve this end, they are even
prepared to support OPS to stall Sasikala from becoming the CM
2) Only
with this plan in mind DMK is hoping for a split among AIADMK MLA's and expects
OPS to win the favour of at least 15 MLA's
3) They
tacitly encourage OPS by saying that in case of a floor test they would support
OPS and not Sasikala
But my reading on
how DMK would behave is as follows
DMK will have
three plans, plan A plan B and Plan C
Plan A
If governor invites Sasikala to form the
government, they will align with OPS faction and vote against the confidence
motion
Plan B
In case the governor asks OPS to
prove his majority through a floor test , this is most unlikely, they would
vote in favour of the confidence motion, irrespective of the outcome of the motion.
Plan C
In case the SC verdict goes against Sasikala and she is not
able to form the government. What could happen?
1)
The governor could ask AIADMK led by Saiskala to
elect another alternate Leader for their legislative party, since it would
still be the largest single party. But in the event of such a situation, the
split in AIADMK could widen and deepen. More AIADMK MLA's could switch loyalties
between OPS and Sasikala. Neither of
them would have a simple majority to form the government. At such a juncture, the
DMK could become the largest single party. Yet they will fall short of few MLA's
to form the government. They can not encourage defection, since the Anti
defection law would attract disqualification of those MLA's.
2)
The DMK also would not like to face another
election so soon .It remains to be seen as to how the DMK would do behind the
scene maneuverings then.
3) Their
best option then would be to give an issue based support to an OPS led government .But
here the moot question is why should DMK with its a fairly good strength in the
assembly support OPS to become the CM?
4) They
can not expect support to form a government with the support of either factions
of the AIADMK. They would also not like President's rule to be imposed. DMK is
also not interested in facing another election so soon. More so for two reasons.
They canot be sure what would be the outcome of the next election. It could
well be a fractured mandate.
What would the governor do?
The governor can use his
discretionary powers and not call Sasikala to form the government on two scores.
1)
There is a split in the party and the majority
can be established only on the floor of the house and not by physically
presenting the MLA's
2)
SC verdict, which is supposed to be delivered
with in a matter of days could go against her and disqualify her.
3)
If the verdict is against Sasikala, he can ask
AIADMK to elect another leader other than Sasikala as CM designate.
4)
Such a move could deepen the split and the
governor could recommend for presidents rule much to dismay of all the
political parties
Let us wait and watch how this
would unfold. Unfortunately TN an important Indian state has a Acting governor
holding additional charge, a Pro tem CM and a care taker government.
No comments:
Post a Comment