Political realignment likely in Tamil Nadu

Kamal Haasan launched his political party 'Makkal Neethi Mayyam' at Madurai yesterday with much fanfare. He also introduced the party flag and talked about few ideals of his new party. Contrary to the expectation of many people, he did not spell out in detail his ideology or political orientation. He said it is being prepared and would be released as a book. Curiously he said for the consumption of those gathered at the meet what information he shared is sufficient and for the discerning few his political manifesto would do justice. Kamal introduced his party's 'Think Tank' also.

 I could guage few implicit signals, Kamal was sending out while launching his party:

1. He is distancing his party from the Congress, BJP and the AIADMK factions.

2. Kejriwal's presence, Pinarayi Vijayan and Chandra Babu Naidu's messages are pointers

3. Though he claims he is a centrist, it remains to be seen how pronounced will be his left of centre leanings.

4. He obviously does not want to alienate the Tamil sentiments and Tamil pride, the core ideology of the Tamil Nationalist parties, organisations and also his Dravidian credentials.

5. His explanation that the six hands in the party flag represent the six southern states is something new and strange. I don't know why he wants to have a separate identity for the southerners. Probably could it be his wish list that his party will find a foot hold in these southern states at a later stage?  

6. In the absence of a clear cut ideology about his party, one gets the feeling, he is still unprepared for a full fledged launch of his party. 

7. I strongly believe Kamal's party (MNM) could very well create a ripple efect on the national scenario during the 2019 parliamentary elections leading to political polarisation and realignments. There could be a strong alliance of like minded parties against the incumbent BJP at the national level and Kamal could be a part of that grand alliance.

8. Kamal's immediate challenge would be to contest the local body elections, which could be held any time before the 2019 parliament poll or the 2021 State Assembly elections. Civic body elections are altogether a different ball game. A reasonably good performance in the civic polls could very well establish a base for his party. In fact Vijayakant in his early days made a significant performance in civic body elections and ensured that he was noticed nationally and made an impact. But Vijaykant frittered away the advantage later on, attributed mainly to his failing health conditions.

9. Kamal would be an intelligent politican, media persons will find him easy to get along with. But there are few pitfalls.  He talks about a corruption free government. Very laudable indeed. But it is easily said than done. Government machinery is not run by honest politicians or honest bureaucrats alone. Invariably bureaucracy defends the status quo. Bureaucracy doesn't work the way we like it to work. We have an insensitive bureaucracy. Kejriwal has inspired Kamal. Despite a brutal majority at the Delhi assembly, Kejriwal still finds it difficult to run the government the way he wants. All the bureaucrat Babu's are against him. Kejriwal may be honest. But he can not say that about his Babu's. Soon after becoming the CM Kejriwal proclaimed he is still an anarchist and had to stage demonstrations on Delhi's platforms. It is true, as Kejriwal said in yesterday's meeting, honesty is in short supply.

10. Kamal could make a difference and instill greater confidence in his followers and the public, if he really means business about his plans to adopt 8 villages. If he could bring about a perceivable change in the lives of the people of the 8 villages without wielding any authority, that would be something commendable. It would speak volumes about his intentions and plans for the future. It is by no means impossible. When Anna Hazare could transform Ralegan Siddhi, why not Kamal!.

11. These days running a political party is not that easy. It would be interesting to see how and from where Kamal would raise funds to run his party and how transparent will be Kamal about his party's fund raising.

Realignments

Winning the electoral battle would be a huge challenge for Kamal. With the impending launch of Rajinikant's party very soon, the political arena in Tamil Nadu would present a possible realignment with all sorts of permutations and combinations. To me Rajnikant looks like a reluctant politican. There is obviously some pressure group driving him to launch his political party. The cat will be out of the bag soon. Intentions and goals of both Kamal and Rajini are good and one and the same. Both of them could very well turn out to be compassionate politicians. But politics is a dirty game.

1. The next elections in TN could see a contest between multiple alliances headed by ADMK, DMK, Kamal and Rajini.

2. These 4 could be the major players and others might veer around these parties.

 3. The Tamil Nationalist forces led by Seeman and other fringe parties could either form a separate group or could align with Kamal.

4. As usual Congress, Muslim League, CPI and this time MDMK also could form an alliance with DMK.

5. VCK led by Thirumavalavan is still in a dilemma. My surmise is he woud keep three options open. They are DMK led front, Kamal led front and if these two doesn't materialise he might join the Tamil nationalist group's alliance.

6. Vijayakant and Vasan could also align with Kamal.

7. This leaves  four parties out of the equations. They are CPM, PMK, BJP and TTV faction.

8. There are two schools of thought in CPM.  A group led by Prakash Karat wants no ties with parties like BJP, Congress and DMK. He has a logical reason for his contention. CPM has some backing only in states like Kerala, WB and Tripura. In these states they would be opposing Congress and BJP. So they don't want to be in alliance with groups where Congress, BJP or DMK is a partner. But Yechuri wants to give stiff opposition to BJP by bringing together all secular forces under one banner at the national level. Under these circumstances I see bright chances for CPM to align with Kamal, especially considering Pinarai Vijayan's bonhomie with Kamal.

9. TTV faction could go it alone or by a surprising turn of events make a compromise with the ruling ADMK faction and go with them.

10. Rajini would be more or less forced to take BJP as an alliance partner, much against his own and party cadres wish, because  otherwise BJP could dish out an all time bad dismal performance in the ensuing TN state assembly elections.

11. Now the odd party left out is PMK. Dr. Anbumani Ramdoss is a visionary politician. TN needs leaders like him .Unfortunately in the jigsaw puzzle his party does not find a place in any combination because of their adamant stand of either going alone or align with parties who accept PMK as the alliance leader.  PMK would not be compatible for alliances headed by DMK, ADMK, Kamal or Rajini. But PMK could align with the Tamil nationalist parties, provided Seeman agrees to be an alliance partner in a group headed by Dr. Anbumani.I strongly feel at least for the sake of survival of his party, PMK should become amenable to alliances with like minded parties.

I presume the mandate would be fractured and could lead to a hung assembly. So far the people of TN have given a clear mandate giving either a simple majority or an absolute majority. The next TN election could be different. Let's wait and watch.